Want a Kindle Fire for Xmas? Or a $250 iPad?

Answering complaints about sluggish functionality and other disappointments, Amazon has released a long-awaited software update for its briskly-selling Amazon Kindle Fire e-book tablet.

The update does speed-up Fire considerably, especially its heretofore herky-jerky e-book page turns.

But if you're think of asking for or giving a Kindle Fire for Christmas, caveat emptor:

Apple is likely to unveil the iPad 3 in a couple of months, which MAY (and I stress the conditional) mean a $250 iPad 2 at the same time. And there may be an 'iPad Mini" – a 7-inch iPad, coming in about a year. 

More on a potential iPad 3, a cheaper iPad 2 and a 7-inch iPad in a moment. First, about the Kindle Fire upgrade.

How to upgrade your Fire

If you own a Fire, first check to see what version of the operating system it's running:

1. Tap the tiny Gear icon in the upper right-hand corner.
2. Tap "More" (the last item on the right)
3. Scroll down and tap "Device" (third item from the bottom)

If the "System Version" DOESN'T read "Current Version: 6.2.1_" (followed by a user number) such as you see in the photo above (not just "6.2" or anything not specifically and completely "6.2.1"), then you need an update.

If you need an update you can find update the instructions here, but here's the short version:

1. Tap the tiny Gear icon in the upper right-hand corner.
2. Tap "Sync."
3. Wait.

When you get to this point, the instructions advise:

The software update will automatically download in the background and will be applied once download is complete and the device is asleep.

Except you get no indication that anything is happening.

So I let my Fire sit for while, then it went to sleep. Like Invasion of the Body Snatchers, Fire re-created itself while it was sleeping. When I woke it up around 10 minutes later, I found the software update had indeed installed itself. I just wish there had been some progress indicator – or any indicator – that the update was in process or done.

There are instructions for downloading the 182 MB update to your PC and manually installing it to the Kindle connected to your PC via USB cable, but try the wireless sleeping update first. The manual process looks daunting.

iPad 3? Cheaper iPad 2? 7-inch iPad?

Kindle Fire is not a BAD device, and the update does speed things up a bit, it's just not the device we were told we were going to get. (Read my many still-valid Fire and Silk Web browser complaints in "Who Should Buy an Amazon Kindle Fire?")

Even with its flaws (one thing the Fire update can't fix are the lack of external volume buttons and its inconveniently-placed sleep button), Fire's main attraction is its price – $199, less than half of iPad 2's entry-level $499 model.

But what if you could have an iPad 2 for $250?

In the spring – February, March – Apple is likely to announce the iPad 3. We in the rumor-gathering tech press don't know much about what the iPad 3 will include other than a higher resolution Retina display and maybe a faster processor.

But as with the iPhone, a new iPad 3 means discounted older iPads. Even though the iPhone 4S represented only a minor improvement, iPhone 4 pricing nevertheless dropped in half, from $199 to $99.

Using iPhone 4's half-off discount as a guide, it may not be too far-fetched to think you'll be able to buy an iPad 2 for $250 in three months from now.

If size is an issue, stories have begun to circulate about the possibility of a 7.85-inch iPad (slightly larger than Fire's screen) – dubbed the iPad Mini – coming in a year or so.

So, if you're thinking of a Kindle Fire this Christmas, I counsel patience to see what Apple does with iPad 2 pricing.

What do you gift/receive in the meantime? An Amazon gift card may suffice.